Africa Policy Home Page | Roundtable Home Page | Roundtable Archive

12 January 2000

Population issues are developmental issues. Although analytical and empirical findings have not provided an unambiguous conclusion about the direction of the consequences of rapid population growth on economic development, there is sufficient evidence to support the cautious conclusion of the Working Group on Population Growth and Economic Development of the National Academy of Science of the United States that "on balance, a slower population growth would be beneficial to economic development for most developing countries." Moreover, the widely accepted viewpoint articulated in United Nations conferences of the 1990s, is that lowering rapid population growth rates would make a crucial contribution to improving living standards and to promoting sustainable economic development.

In Africa, to attain reduction of poverty by half in 2015, a major consensus at the World Summit for Social Development, will require a 4 per cent annual reduction in the number of people living in poverty (on $1 or less per day) and an average economic growth rate of at least 7 per cent per annum. But Africa's economy recorded only an average growth of 3.3 per cent in 1998 while the population is growing at an average rate of about 2.4 per cent per annum. This margin of barely a one percentage difference between economic and population growth rates indicates a precarious situation.

The race between population growth and economic development is on and its outcome will shape the economy and society of African countries in the 21st century. The economic growth rate needs to be increased substantially at the same time as population growth rate is decreased.

The landmark global consensus on population and development achieved at the International Conference on Population and Development in 1994 and reaffirmed by the special session of the UN General Assembly in 1999 should become the blueprint to guide African countries in setting objectives, norms and standards for public policies and private undertakings for sustainable development.

Three socio-economic and demographic requirements are essential. These are, first, policies to empower women; second, policies to lower high annual population growth rate; and, third, policies to lower mortality rates, through promotion of the health and welfare of the most vulnerable population sub-groups; the youth aged 15-24 who now constitute about 20 percent of total population, the victims of HIV/AIDS, and the growing number of the elderly.

Rapid Population Growth

The second half of the 20th century has been a period of very rapid population growth; at an estimated 2.4 per cent per annum, Africa is the world's fastest growing region. It is instructive to note that in 1950, Africa's total population was less than half the total population of Europe; 221 million as compared to Europe's 547 million. Forty-eight years later, in 1998, due to the much faster growth rate, the population of Africa had risen to about 749 million or 20 million more people than Europe which had 729 million people. Although future growth rate is expected to be lower, the in-built population momentum nearly guarantees a doubling of present population size by 2035.

Women's Empowerment

Women in African societies have subordinate status to men despite advances by some women; those who are educated and/or are resident in urban centres. The primary roles of most African women are those of wife and mother, and childbearing is an important determinant of social status. In most countries, children are the main source of old-age security for parents who have large families in order to ensure that a few of their children survive to adulthood. Children contribute to household income. They serve as farm workers, and hawkers of assorted wares in the informal sector. Children are also relied upon to perform vital household tasks such as cooking and cleaning, as well as fetching potable water and collecting “free” fuel wood from forests, often from long distances.

Rapid population growth contributes enormously to over-utilization of resources and environmental degradation. In time, consumption of nearby resources like fuel wood, results in increases in the time costs of their use; a household would need more child-hours to collect the same quantity of, say, water and firewood. This creates private incentives to have more children. Indeed, it results in a vicious circle in which child labour and rapid population growth lead to environmental degradation which in turn, generates more work and the need for more children and thus, rapid population growth. The vicious circle reflects a child-dependency syndrome arising from unequal distribution of, and failure to ensure equal access, by women, to wealth-creating resources.

Youth Aged 15-24 years

Recent decline in both fertility and mortality levels has shifted the demographic balance in favour of those in the 15-24 age group who numbered 149 million in 1998, constituting about 20 per cent of total African population. Their sheer size and the rapid growth of this population sub-group which is growing faster than total population are sufficient reasons deserving special attention.

The decisions of this young population about when and how many children to have will determine the future size and the quality of life of Africa's population in the 21st century. But Africa stands to reap a demographic bonus -- a wave of young people entering the work force without a wave of children following -- when the present "bulge" of young people comes into the workforce. If adequately trained, and if jobs can be found for these prospective entrants into the labour force, the "workforce bulge" can be the basis for more investment, greater labour productivity and rapid economic development.

HIV/AIDS

Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have been hardest hit by the HIV/AIDS epidemic, and account for about 70 per cent of all HIV/AIDS cases in the world. The disease usually strikes males and females between 15 and 49 years. These are adults in their reproductive years and who constitute the bulk of the economically active population. The dramatic increases in AIDS-induced deaths among the most active population groups who are also most likely to leave behind young children have created about 10 million orphans.

Its negative effects on macro-economic performance through loss of large numbers of the economically active population, creation of unschooled children (as most AIDS orphans are likely to become) who will lack competitive skills in the job market, and the national costs of treating victims, make HIV/AIDS Africa's number one development disaster.

The Elderly

In Africa, the number of the elderly population aged 65 years and over, though still relatively small, is increasing. Their number is expected to rise from 22 million in 1995 to 52 million in 2025.

Increase in the number of the elderly is occurring at a time when the traditional support system for the elderly, the extended family, is being eroded. The severe economic difficulties faced by many countries in the 1980s and the early 1990s have increased household poverty. Consequently, more women are working outside their homes to supplement family income, and are no longer available to care for aged parents. Moreover, massive rural-urban migrations and industrialization are reasons why working children are more likely, than ever before, to live away from older parents who are left behind in villages.

Yet, the elderly who are custodians of traditional values, and who, more than ever before, are being called upon (in some countries at least) to care for AIDS orphans, constitute a resource for development. Ageing population can be expected to strain medical systems. Hence, there is need for planning to ensure dignified and productive life for the elderly without jeopardizing the equally demanding needs of the young and adult population for education and health services, and employment.

Holistic Planning for Development

A recent publication of the ECA "Forging Partnerships for Africa's Future: A Prospectus for a Renewed ECA," says: "The most compelling issue facing Africa is the nexus dynamic, that is, developing policies to mitigate the problems arising from the related areas of population expansion, declining per capita agricultural production, and increasing threats to the continent's fragile ecology. Africa is the only continent where agricultural production per capita has been declining steadily, and population and environmental degradation are increasing. This situation has resulted in greater food insecurity in Africa and undermined prospects for long-term sustainable development."

In response to the challenge posed by the micro-level interactions among population, education and environment which are particularly relevant to economic performance and people's welfare, the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) has developed as an advocacy tool, the Population-Environment-Development-Agriculture (PEDA) computer simulation model which demonstrates the impact of different policy options in relation to the goal of alleviating poverty.

Summary

Africa's demographic extremes, namely: fertility levels that are the world's highest, and to which Adolescents aged 15-19 make far greater contributions than in any other world region; the large population of youth aged 15-24 with special needs and who constitute a larger proportion of the population in Africa than in most other regions; maternal, child and infant mortality, and the HIV/AIDS scourge which are rapidly reversing earlier gains in life expectancy and in development, constitute major impediments to Africa's development.

Africa Policy Home Page | Roundtable Home Page | Roundtable Archive